Expectation and Poker
David Sklansky’s Theory of Poker is considered a seminal book for the discussion of mathematics and statistics in poker. He introduces the concept of Expectation as applied to gambling, but really it can be applied to any risk-based transaction from the stock market to the lottery.
The basic example he uses of a coin-flip makes it easy to conceptualize Expectation - in the long run, a coin-flip is a 50-50 proposition, so an even-money bet has an expectation of zero. You will neither win nor lose money in the long run. But, if you are able to get favorable odds by finding someone willing to give you $2 for every flip you win against $1 for every flip you lose, you know have a positive expectation. In the long run, you will win money.
Applying this to poker, any time you get favorable odds on a bet, you are compelled to make the bet. Going back to our post about Pot Odds, you will see this concept in practice: If you’re offered the opportunity to make 4x your bet, and your odds of winning the hand are 3:1, you take the bet because mathematically, you expect to win money in the long run. Thankfully, the majority of poker players don’t understand this concept, and of those that do, many have trouble applying it. This is one of the ways winners are separated from losers.
Don’t worry; Skalnsky explains it in very simple, easy-to-understand terms. A copy of Theory of Poker is a must-have for every poker players library. To apply this concept, Full Tilt Poker is giving new players a 100% deposit bonus.